The ‘dreaded’ penalty shootout is a common feature of knockout football tournaments and as every commentator in every shootout will 👄 tell you, going out on penalties is a ‘terrible way to lose’.

Right as they may be, there’s a certain science 👄 and pattern to penalty shootouts that not everyone is aware of, and knowing the numbers can help you turn a 👄 profit if you’re sick enough to bet in-play on football’s equivalent of Russian Roulette.

Penalties by Numbers

Where there’s a significant sample 👄 size of something, there’ll always be nerds to analyse the data and present it in a nice neat fashion for 👄 less clever people to understand, and that’s exactly what several research groups have done over the years*.

An overwhelming feature of 👄 the hand-waving analysis of penalty kicks by pundits and journalists comes down to simple cognitive bias. If a penalty is 👄 saved, it’s invariably described as a poor kick. Similarly if the ball hits the back of the net, the kicker 👄 is described as cool and calm under pressure. This is of course, rubbish, and variance or ‘luck’ to the great 👄 un-hosed is the real factor at work here.